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Global oil demand should see an extended recovery as we head towards summer, and global supply remains synchronised, with US producers showing a more disciplined manner towards increasing output in this upcycle. Industrial electricity consumption has increased due to strong export orders, while safety production and environmental protection requirements have slowed the pace of domestic coal production and coal imports have also been dampened due to geopolitical tensions. We initiate coverage on the China connector sector. Asia Pacific Thematic Strategy: Logistical disruptions pushed apparent demand away from real demand: some bullwhips now unwinding. Weakening onshore sentiment likely led to a significant reversal of mutual fund inflows following Lunar New Year. Our Global Wealth Report analyzes the household wealth of 5 billion people across the globe. Southwestern Sichuan province recently requested industrial plants in 19 out of its 21 cities to suspend production for six days to secure residential power supply, with other regions including Chongqing city, Shandong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang also rolling out measures to ration power use since July. Copyright 1997 - 2023 CREDIT SUISSE GROUP AG and/or its affiliates. In 2023, the divergence among sub-sectors in Shipping sector should widen. Within the industry chain, upstream copper concentrate producers are in a dominant position and take majority of the industry's profits, given the sub-US$50/t TC price. Nearly half the consumers spent less than Rmb500 annually within their household on TCM drugs, suggesting there could be room for growth in average household TCM spend. Original research on over 1,300 companies, with a total market capitalization of USD 17.16 trillion, including over 400 Chinese-listed stocks. While the net flow was lacklustre relative to recent months, we saw significant sector rotation, with gross turnover impact in June staying high at 30% of the value traded. It was dominated by companies from the technology, consumer, industrials, healthcare, and property sectors. In terms of impact on countries, energy and commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia), should remain resilient, but at the losing end would be the Philippines (heavy reliance on imported oil), Vietnam and Thailand; these may face the brunt of the commodity price spike. We deep-dive into these end-markets and assess the growth potential in the next 2-3 years. We expect brands' inventory levels to continue improving into 2021 (currently still 1-2 months higher vs normal levels). China Market Strategy: Outlook 2022: A better year when the dust settles. We believe more aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, more supportive consumption and property policies, as well as fine-tuning of dynamic Covid-zero strategy are needed to stabilize the economy and market. This marks the first hydrogen game plan from the central government since President Xi's net-zero pledge back in 2020. For this sector, the increased adoption of online services across almost all categories has been the trend during the pandemic and is here to stay, reflecting the structural changes and the lasting effects COVID -19 has brought to consumer behaviours. This is mainly driven by rising demand from industrial robot, battery, and semi. We see further downside risks. APAC Quantitative & Systematic Strategy: Northbound positioning monitor International sentiment towards China-A still choppy. Tesla has become the largest automaker by market cap. APAC Quantitative & Systematic Strategy Southbound sentiment tracker aggressive buying of internet stocks. With top policymakers maintaining original 2022 economic target, FAI (especially infra), is likely to become the primary driver to stabilise economic growth. Prescription appears to be the key driver for TCM products. China Auto Parts Sector: Valuing the Tesla supply chain. We believe the demand recovery trajectory is unlikely to resemble the one back in 2020 due to a change in circumstances, including a more contagious virus, a less supportive property market, as well as less resilient manufacturing SMEs in China. Because of its strong structural prospects and robust EPS momentum, we will look for opportunities to re-enter the market, but today we tactically cut our India position from Overweight to Underweight. At the same time, mutual fund crowding risks associated with domestic mutual funds remain elevated, a key risk in a downturn. We identify the transportation market as presenting the largest near-term opportunity, within which FCEV heavy-duty trucks stand out. Our existing positions already Overweight the three resilient markets, Underweight Japan and give a Market Weight to Philippines. Everest Medicines has some uncertainties in terms of its Ph2 vaccine data as well as competitive pressure from domestic mRNA vaccine players. Based on our channel checks, some brands showed sequential improvement in the YoY growth of automation orders in Sep vs Jul-Aug (comp is lower for Sep). These technological advancements set a higher bar for the LiBS industry and favour first-tier players, and we estimate the Top-4 global LiBS players to take an 84% global market share by 2025 (2020: 66%). Upcoming results: Downturn well under way. Credit Suisse said it would borrow up to 50 billion Swiss francs ($53.7 billion) from the Swiss National Bank, taking advantage of a lifeline offered by the central bank late Wednesday after its . China Market Strategy: Shanghai lockdown and its ripple effect (part 2) quantifying impact on consumer sector. China Consumer Sector: 2020 outlook: Finding alpha in a less volatile world. Themes Monitor: Electric Vehicles: Strong momentum carrying forward into 2021. China industrial robot market grew 72% YoY to 73k units in 2Q21, driven by demand from electronics, metal, and auto parts sectors. We project stable iPhone replacement rates at 4.3 years to drive 234/237/249 mn units over 2021-23, as 5G shifts to more mainstream, driving Apple hardware TAM to grow to US$300 bn by 2023. Credit Suisse isn't commenting, but sources say the cuts appeared to impact up to 25% of the equity research team. We expect demand to recover after mid-2023 for sportswear and in later 2023 for catering. CS analysts in tech, auto, renewables and consumer goods are positive on their sectors, supporting our view. We expect demand recovery led by on-trade consumption, relatively favourable weather conditions, and major companies' improved brand/product portfolios to drive revenue/earnings growth of 1-9%/4-21% YoY in 2022 for beer companies covered by us. For the full year we forecast 570kb/d loss (vs 270kb/d previously), resulting in a 110kb/d YoY decline in Asia oil demand the first YoY decline since 2008 GFC. Asia Pacific Strategy - 2H outlook: Challenging times with some silver linings. Any extended outbreak would pose sizable economic impact to the entire China, given its significant contribution in GDP and export. Carsten Riek joins Credit Suisse following more than 20 years of industry . This powered USD ahead of other global major currencies and added increasing pressure for CNY depreciation. China Semiconductor Sector: China semis' better growth re-accelerated in 1Q21, leading to sub-seasonal inventory. Nannette Hechler- Fayd'herbe, Global Head of Investment Strategy and Research IWM Richard Kersley, Global Head of Research Product Other Chinese biotechs/pharmas include Akeso, HutchMed, Innocare, Carsgen, Cstone, Genor, Alphamab, I-Mab, Betta, Kelun, and Hansoh. However, we see no repeat of 2021 power crunch, given different supply bottleneck, demand backdrops and policy directions. China's IGBT (insulated gate bipolar transistor) development serves a good purpose "Dual Circulation" in a greener world. Credit Suisse is committed to prioritizing clients' needs. Against this backdrop, in 2020 China's top leaders introduced two high-level strategies, the 'Dual Circulation' development model and the target of net-zero carbon emission by 2060, underscoring its focus on domestic energy security and energy self-dependency and greener development. Highlights include our CS Playbook, Top Picks, Ideas Engine, Connections Series, and Core Views. China Oil & Gas Sector: Life after US$70: Revising our pecking order. While applications are potentially exciting, there is no 5G 'killer app' for mass-market consumers as yet, in the way that streaming media was for 4G uptake. 4 0 obj For renewables, both solar module and wind turbine costs are set for 20-30% YoY decline, thanks to polysilicon supply debottlenecking for solar and declining wind turbine tender prices. China's drug industry could start gaining a competitive edge as its R&D transitions to a best-in-class strategy via engineering-related capabilities. Asia Pacific Thematic Strategy: RCEP First Take: Impact likely to be slow and incremental. China Property Management: Growth of top players remains intact, We estimate the scale expansion of the top-100 players will remain intact at a five-year CAGR of 22%. Asia Technology Strategy: 2023 Outlook - A deeper 1H bottom to set-up a mild recovery. The US is looking to protect its leading 48% share consisting of its leading IDMs, fabless, equipment and EDA/IP, while China is looking to gain self-sufficiency and increase its 5% share, which lags its 20-25% share of tech demand and 30-40% hardware share. As a result of solid SaaS growth expectation, SaaS/subscription revenue should gradually take an increasing share among total revenue. China Healthcare Sector: 2023 Outlook - Dawn is finally upon us, but sunny days are slow to come. (3) Ecosystem: We expect inter-connectivity to continue. China xEV Battery Value Chain: Electrolyte: LiPF6 vs LiFSI: The road to mainstream solute. China Market Strategy: Infrastructure FAI back to spotlight to stabilise the economy. The companies under our coverage include BeiGene, Hengrui, Everest, Innovent, Junshi, ZaiLab, Harbour Biomed (HBM), Sino Biopharma (SBP), CSPC, and Luye. We forecast solar-grade EVA/POE resins demand to see 33%/80% CAGRs in 2022-25E, as N-type solar cell penetration increases to 40% by 2025, as per CS China Utilities Team's estimate. With the knowhow from Robotaxi operations, we expect China's high-level autonomous driving vehicle sales to reach 1.0 mn/6.0 mn units by 2025/2030, achieving penetration rate of 23%. China Internet Sector: Live-streaming e-commerce becoming a norm. China New Energy Hydrogen: How best to play the China hydrogen theme. Most companies noted positive progress on product roll-out and solid demand outlook. China Restaurants and Condiments Sectors: A bigger bite of China. We see digitisation demand remains sticky across industries post pandemic, demonstrated by social e-commerce and ERP. Despite not many specific numeric targets, it sets out a pathway for 2025/2030/2035 across the hydrogen value chain, a significant milestone for China's move towards carbon neutrality. Currently EVA film is still the mainstream encapsulation solution for solar module, but POE is set to benefit most from the increasing penetration of N-type solar module. China Healthcare Sector Sideways market expected in 2H22, with focus back on company fundamentals. China tier 1 hyperscale capex rebounded by 14% YoY in 2020 and is expected to maintain 14%/13% YoY growth in 2021/22E, driven by China's migration to cloud, booming data traffic demand and digitalisation. FAI managed to register growth in 4M22. China Semiconductor Sector: Shanghai semiconductor tour takeaways. In this third part of our Dual Circulation series, we deep dive into China's energy security and revolution roadmap to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Equity Research: Original research on over 3,000 companies with thought-provoking thematic analysis, differentiated trading ideas and coordinated global views. If Brent crude remained at US$120/bbl, India's current account would weaken by almost 3 pp of GDP. (3) Macro recovery, supportive regulations provide confidence amid relatively light investors' positioning. Omni-channel/channel penetration are key drivers for e-tailing to expand the total addressable market and capture consumer demand in a versatile manner, while brands with self-developed distribution network are quickly adapting to avoid becoming obsolete. While concerns have risen since Tesla's Battery Day, we believe xEV demand growth is still at an early stage and leaves enough room for quality battery cell makers to grow, even if some OEMs were to insource battery production. Asia Oil & Refining Sector: From bad to worse 2.0: A deeper demand disruption from extended coronavirus outbreak. Oil prices have rallied 42% since end-November and are now fast approaching US$100/bbl. We believe there may be a short-term reshuffle to mass-market brands amid China's economic recovery, where domestic brands may benefit, thanks to their better value for money, strong R&D, and improved brand perception. More importantly, we believe the recovery in June and even in July is not V-shaped and could potentially disappoint vs optimistic market expectations. Looking forward to 2021, Compared to gradually improving infrastructure and unexciting property investment, consumption should become a major driver of economic growth, in line with government policy. But the shifts in trade flows, strained supply, and potential infrastructure investments should help support the bulker earnings momentum. China Consumer Sector: The rise of the Chinese brands (vol 2). China sportswear online sales momentum softened in Jan-2023, which should be a combined result of consumption spending shift to offline channels and other categories (dining, F&B), given an early Chinese New Year (CNY) in 2023. China Technology Sector: Outlook 2022: Prefer NEV and Metaverse beneficiaries. We list market expectations in various key policy areas and our views on the potential forces. We estimate the Robotaxi fleet to reach ~200k/1.4 mn units by 2025/2030, as Robotaxi services penetrate into lower-tier areas (like Tier 3/4/5 cities) with falling mobility price. %PDF-1.5 We take July's overall macro data announced on 15 Aug as slightly negative for construction machinery demand. We see Robotaxi as the best testing tool for driving-autonomy R&D because it generally deals with more complicated urban-area traffic scenarios and longer operation hours than private cars. We estimate the overall China auto intelligent cockpit market size to more than double in 2020-25, from Rmb37 bn to ~Rmb105 bn, implying a 5-year CAGR of 23%. We expect GRM recovery to be slower than our previous forecast given wider and deeper demand disruption. A global economic recovery, with assistance of vaccines, would help support China exports. Fed began to hike interest rate and discussed plans to shrink its balance sheet. Copyright 1997 - 2023 CREDIT SUISSE GROUP AG and/or its affiliates. With the domestic outbreak well under control, we stay positive on domestic travel demand normalisation to drive revenue recovery for travel agencies and airlines in China this year. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has triggered increasing disruption in the areas of commodities, leading to substantial pressure on already-high inflation. Multi-faceted and eye-opening. Late breaking abstracts will be released at 5 am (HKT), 4 June the day before the meeting gets under way. We estimate China's FCEV sales to jump from 3k units in 2022 to 30k/80k units in 2025/2030 and China's hydrogen price to decline from ~Rmb60 per kg in 2022 to Rmb35/Rmb20 per kg in 2025/2030. CS Global Energy Team cuts Brent oil price forecast to US$42/$50 for 2020/21 (from US$63/$65), and expects oil prices to remain under pressure next several quarters. Mar was a volatile month, given the Xinjiang cotton issue, and we saw divergence in the overall growth trends between foreign and domestic brands. We are tactically cautious on the automation space into the 2Q results' season as we forecast the names likely to print a mediocre 2Q. China Chemical Sector: Polyester filament yarns: Consolidating into a new era. We have created tradable baskets on each. We see stocks attractive on a cross-cycle view but still see risk being early, with potential cuts continuing in 4Q22 amid high inventory and muted demand. Logistics-wise, inactivated vaccines have an advantage as they can be stored in 2-8C temperature. China Cement Sector - Recovery in sight, but slow. China Market Strategy - Dual Circulation (part 1): Technology self-reliance (). ESMO congress is one of the biggest annual events for oncology stocks. You are about to change the origin country from where you are visiting Credit-suisse.com. *The location of origin is defined in your browser settings and may not be identical with your citizenship and/or your domicile. Distributor expects foreign brands to decline 20% in May, -10-20% in 3Q21, before achieving a flat growth in 4Q. AxJ is exiting a badly disappointing decade with just 6.5% in compound annual total returns and a 4.7% CAGR in EPS, but we believe that the region is entering a new earnings super-cycle. We expect China to speed up fiscal expenditure, carry out a constructive monetary policy and adjust the implementation pace for China's long-term development goals such as common prosperity and carbon neutrality. Hotels, short-haul and local travel/flights should see a nice recovery. China's baby boom generation, 245 mn+ people, will represent a formidable group of consumers as they enter retirement age. China OEM automation grew 28% YoY in 2Q21, implying a 21% 2-Y CAGR. There are 10 existing players in China. China's 2021 IT budget recovery (7.2% YoY), 5G proliferation and favourable policies support faster conversion. The momentum of the automation market has weakened since March and this has led to an outlook downgrade from MIR on China Automation market to flattish, from 8% previously. China Communication Infrastructure Sector: Accelerating capex ramp in 2H21-1H22. CQis recent sportswear survey (21 Nov) show that the China Pride trend is slowing. Our sensitivity analysis suggests that producers of commodities like aluminum, copper and oil are likely to be the major beneficiaries, while other sectors will face cost pressure with varied ability to pass-through to downstream. Community group purchase (Rmb1.5 tn) will be a major industry disrupter by best satisfying consumers' pursuit of value-for-money products, but with limited SKUs (stock keeping unit). We believe two drivers increasing high-level vehicle autonomy penetration and falling LiDAR price will notably boost LiDAR's demand in China. China Healthcare Sector: ESMO 2021: China pharma/biotech abstracts to watch for potential catalysts. And this is what they got today in the small print of Reuters' article on the coming CS First Boston summit. China, the #1 energy consumer globally that accounts for one quarter of world consumption, shocked the market when it announced its target to reach net-zero by 2060. We list seven CS-covered companies which we believe should be best positioned to ride on the theme. Recommended Articles Group/life EV growth slowed to +3~7%/+4~7% HoH, partly due to deteriorated experience variance. APAC Quantitative & Systematic Strategy: China onshore mutual fund positioning: latest crowded stocks and Under the Radar' names. In the current down cycle, the larger-than-previous decline in property sales and continued home price weakness indicate more signs of policy relaxation. We expect restaurant sales in China to see an accelerating recovery into 2021 along with the fade-away of COVID19, and healthy growth over 2019-24E, supported by multiple secular drivers including increasing disposable income and urbanisation, faster pace of lifestyle and the changes in social and demographic structure. China Banks Sector: Be very selective in a challenging year. We continue to expect a favourable global oil S/D balance for 2021, which should be supportive to the oil price recovery as seen YTD. We found 533 assets were in-licensed and 122 assets out-licensed. It will be a challenging year. We are relatively more optimistic on robot than automation component sales growth in 3Q22, Asia Semiconductor Sector: 4Q22 outlook Adjusting to weak demand and high inventory to restore industry health. The aggregated sportswear sales on Taobao, Tmall, and JD declined 28% YoY (Dec: -10% YoY). Therefore, LiFSI becomes an alternative solution for Li-ion battery makers who want to produce Li-ion batteries with high performance. The government, in our view, hopes to safeguard data security, promote fair competition and social consideration, while continuing to encourage innovation. China Healthcare Sector: A tale of 7 Covid antivirals to compete in China in 1H23. All rights reserved. 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